Zero Carbon

Zero Carbon Society Accounts

Stephen Stretton — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:48:53 +0000

Here are the Cambridge Zero Carbon Society Accounts for 2008/9

Cambridge Climate Conference Accounts 2008 & 2009

Stephen Stretton — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:47:12 +0000

Here are the final Cambridge Climate Summit 2008 Accounts and the cancelled Cambridge Climate Conference 2009 Accounts

CommonFuture: The UK Energy Crisis http://bit.ly/bdQHbd #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 14:26:19 +0000

CommonFuture: The UK Energy Crisis http://bit.ly/bdQHbd #fb

CommonFuture: Evidence for Climate Change and Related Policy Issues http://bit.ly/bKQMjR #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 13:59:17 +0000

CommonFuture: Evidence for Climate Change and Related Policy Issues http://bit.ly/bKQMjR #fb

The UK Energy Crisis

Stephen Stretton — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 02:56:32 +0000

What do we need to do to solve the simultaneous energy and climate crises? What do we mean by the energy crisis? There are various energy crises (high prices, unstable suppliers, resource depletion(?)). One possibly serious energy crisis is the potential shortage of electricity generation capacity. For example, by 2015, the UK might have only 80% of the [...]

How Sensitive Is The Climate?

Stephen Stretton — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 02:29:45 +0000

Why ‘Fast Feedbacks’ are quite slow and ‘Slow Feedbacks’ might be rather fast. This paper by Hansen et al. has lots of interesting material on climate sensitivity: http://www.planetwork.net/climate/Hansen2007.pdf The climate sensitivity is the temperature response of the whole climate to a forcing of greenhouse gases. We know that there are two basic sorts of feedback processes going [...]

Evidence for Climate Change and Related Policy Issues

Stephen Stretton — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 01:44:00 +0000

Science Issues Why do we think that the observed increased concentrations of CO2 and Methane will warm the earth?1) Basic physics2) Water vapour feedbacks from recent measurement of radiative outflow from satellites & Models integrating these observations3) Observations of the climate warming up already (see below for detailed refs)4) Observations CO2 of the ice ages (showing [...]

1740 And All That

Tim Joslin — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 18:42:29 +0000

The pain goes on. The Met Office announced yesterday that they are giving up seasonal forecasts. This is going to seem to most people – and I have to go along with the majority view on this – as if there’s something seriously wrong. I don’t believe we’re dealing with butterflies’ wings here. I simply [...]

Arctic Methane on the Move?

david — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 14:49:00 +0000

Methane is like the radical wing of the carbon cycle, in today’s atmosphere a stronger greenhouse gas per molecule than CO2, and an atmospheric concentration that can change more quickly than CO2 can. There has been a lot of press coverage of a new paper in Science this week called “Extensive methane venting to [...]

CommonFuture: Biofuels Are Not the Answer http://bit.ly/c5Sv2x #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 14:19:59 +0000

CommonFuture: Biofuels Are Not the Answer http://bit.ly/c5Sv2x #fb

A Risky Business

Stephen Stretton — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 02:23:26 +0000

By Stephen Stretton. I was talking about risk last night with a couple of friends. I was asked why climate change is a risk to individuals, nations and the world. Here’s why. The following distribution describes the estimated chance of different warmings if we give up producing CO2 and other greenhouse gases now (actually if we [...]

Biofuels Are Not the Answer

Tim Joslin — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 02:10:29 +0000

Biofuels Are Not the Answer (pdf), by Tim Joslin. Present policies to promote biofuels fail to adequately take into account the opportunity cost of the land required for the biofuel crop. A way to do this is by determining the payback period for biofuel cropping.

Climate change commitments

gavin — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 13:43:50 +0000

Climate change commitment, Matthews and Weaver, adaptation and mitigation. CO2 emissions and concentrations.

Engineering Cities for climate change

Asher Minns — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:09:23 +0000

This synthesis report of three year's research to develop the Cities programme's Urban Integrated Assessment Facility investigates how London can grow while reducing its emissions and vulnerability to climate change. Download the full report

The AMO in the CET?

Tim Joslin — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 10:26:53 +0000

A couple of weeks ago a commenter suggested I “personally check” the “statistical significance” of “temperature trends”. Well, I’m not sure that’s really my role in life, but as it happens I did take a peek at the Central England Temperature (CET) record last week to see if I could see any evidence for an [...]

Close Encounters of the Absurd Kind

group — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 22:31:29 +0000

Ben Santer, IPCC, SAR, Chapter 8, discernible influence, "scientific cleasning", Guardian, Fred Pearce, Douglass and Christy

Why the AMO Overshoots

Tim Joslin — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 20:00:58 +0000

I’ve had a bit of off-line feedback on my previous post Spin Snow, not Sea Ice, the AMO is Real!, so I thought I’d try to correct any misconceptions arising from my clumsy presentation. 1. I am only attempting to explain general climate trends, not annual variation in the weather. In particular, I am assuming that [...]

The Guardian disappoints

gavin — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:26:41 +0000

The Guardian, Fred Pearce, Douglas Keenan, Tom Wigley, Phil Jones, Mike Mann, Keith Briffa, Chinese weather stations, fraud, peer review

Spin Snow, not Sea Ice: the AMO is Real!

Tim Joslin — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 13:55:08 +0000

How unfortunate. Back in 2000, yes, that’s not a typo, in 2000, the Independent wrote that: “According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become ‘a very rare and exciting event’. ‘Children just aren’t going to [...]

Throw your iPhone into the climate debate

rasmus — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 08:01:24 +0000

Who says that the climate debate is not evolving? According to the daily newspaper the Guardian, a new application (‘app‘) has been written for iPhones that provides a list of climate dissidents’ arguments, and counter arguments based on more legitimate scientific substance. The app is developed by John Cook from ‘Skeptical Science‘. It’s apparently [...]

The Telegraph’s Sensibly But Mysteriously Changed Climategate Story

Tim Joslin — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:51:28 +0000

Now I am confused. Just by chance I noticed just now that a link in my post a couple of days ago is now broken. I quoted the Telegraph as saying: “In an interview for the BBC’s website, Professor Jones also conceded that global temperatures may have been higher during the medieval warm [...]

Harrabin’s Hamfisted Interview

Tim Joslin — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:00:46 +0000

In a post earlier this week, I traced back from an Express headline to a BBC Q&A with Professor Phil Jones. In fact, I only changed my title at the last minute when I realised the interview, and not just Express misreporting, was a large part of the problem. The UK sceptic-fuelled media [...]

Whatevergate

gavin — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 04:11:53 +0000

IPCC, glaciergate, climategate, UK media coverage, Jonathan Leake, David Rose, overton window

A Strangely Unhelpful Interview, Deniable Denial and the Daily Express

Tim Joslin — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 22:34:41 +0000

I passed a news-stand this afternoon and couldn’t help noticing that today’s front-page lead in the Express is The Great Climate Change Retreat. Yes indeed: “There has been no global warming for 15 years, a key scientist admitted yesterday in a major U-turn.” They went on: “Professor Phil Jones, who is at the centre [...]

Daily Mangle

group — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 20:18:37 +0000

Yesterday, the Daily Mail of the UK published a predictably inaccurate article entitled “Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995″. The title itself is a distortion of what Jones actually said in an interview with the BBC. What Jones actually said is that, while the globe [...]

Fixing the IPCC (and the Motley CRU) Part 2

Tim Joslin — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 17:12:26 +0000

[Oops, this post initially appeared dated Feb 10th because that's when I created the draft it's based on. Deleting and reposting as it's now Feb 15th and more to the point so that Part 2 appears after Part 1!] As promised a few days ago, I’m now delving into what has gone wrong with climate [...]

IPCC errors: facts and spin

group — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 20:39:27 +0000

IPCC AR4 errors, glaciergate, amazongate

PhD Opportunity: Shipping Emission Modelling

Asher Minns — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 21:55:36 +0000

The Tyndall Centre in conjunction with the Sustainable Consumption Institute at The University of Manchester are seeking an interdisciplinary but highly numerate physical sciences/engineering graduate to join a team of researchers investigating low-carbon shipping.

Fixing the IPCC (and the Motley CRU): Part 1

Tim Joslin — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:40:51 +0000

Last night’s BBC News at 10 report on the University of East Anglia (UEA) investigation of the affair of the leaked emails made it seem like the climate scientists were on trial. What a travesty (as someone said recently). Just as with the financial crisis, where it’s easier to blame the bankers [...]

New Tyndall Working Paper: The smart meter visible energy trial

Asher Minns — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:14:38 +0000

Duet Meter

Tom Hargreaves of UEA interviewed people taking part in a trial of 'smart meters' to understand how they use and think about them, and how (or if) this leads to changes in electricity consumption.

Good news for the earth’s climate system?

group — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:08:45 +0000

Frank et al, Nature, carbon cycle sensitivity to global warming.

The Earth is a Fridge

Tim Joslin — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 15:25:29 +0000

No, I’m not a teapot. I’m serious. The way the climate system works is that, over a year, there is a net gain of heat in low latitudes and a net loss at high latitudes. Heat is transported from more tropical regions and radiated away at the poles. Now, I’ve been [...]

Check out our New Vimeo Channel

Administrator — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 11:48:49 +0000

A ‘Sanitation’ Approach to Terrorism (and climate change?) Risk

TheClimatePhilosopher — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 21:07:00 +0000

I just found this great article (nepotism moi? ;)! http://lookinwonderment.blogspot.com/2010/01/sanitation-case-study-for-our-anti.html Maybe we need a 'sanitation' approach to climate change. Less hot air, more unsung heroes?

Irene Lorenzoni on: “Individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation”

Administrator — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:31:57 +0000

A Risky Business

TheClimatePhilosopher — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 14:40:00 +0000

I was talking about risk last night with a couple of friends. I was asked why climate change is a risk to individuals, nations and the world. Here's why. The following distribution describes the estimated chance of different warmings if we give up producing CO2 and other greenhouse gases now (actually if we stopped in 2005). You will see that we have a more than evens chance already of melting the greenland ice sheet (7m of sea level rise, enough to reach the shores of Cambridge). Over the next few years we will reach the same chance of destroying the amazon rain forest (it's even possible that if climate change was compounded by drought, a vast fire might erupt). Big risks.

from: http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/dai/Ramanathan-Feng-PNAS-2008.pdf

The commentary "Stop Worrying Start Panicking?" on this is here:
http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/dai/Schellnhuber-PNAS-2008.pdf

The other thing I've been thinking about is the basic evidence about why the planet is cooking (in particular, how we determine the radiative forcing of different gases). I've found this article which appears quite good: http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/RamAmbio.pdf

Interestingly, Volcanoes can Trigger El Ninos

Tim Joslin — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 18:24:11 +0000

Once again, I’m starting this post as I’m halfway through another one that may or may not see the light of day. I was trying to put together a rant following the Royal Society’s (RS’s) panel discussion on geo-engineering (available on royalsociety.tv), which I attended on Tuesday evening. The meeting followed a report [...]

Copenhagen COP15 Panel Discussion: What happened and what next?

Administrator — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 12:43:45 +0000

Following the Copenhagen international climate negotiations in December, many people are asking themselves what happens now. Was the Copenhagen conference a failure? What lessons can be drawn from the outcome of the conference? Next time, what should we do more of, what should we do less of?

01:01:10 minutes (31.22 MB)

New UK-China graduate training initiative

Asher Minns — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 14:11:10 +0000

Postgraduate students are invited to apply for a new British Council programme aimed at helping businesses in the UK and China fight climate change. Students will be selected from the Tyndall Centre partner Universities and the Chinese Universities of Fudan, Peking, Tongji and Tsinghua.

The IPCC is not infallible (shock!)

group — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 21:54:43 +0000

Like all human endeavours, the IPCC is not perfect. Despite the enormous efforts devoted to producing its reports with the multiple levels of peer review, some errors will sneak through. Most of these will be minor and inconsequential, but sometimes they might be more substantive. As many people are aware (and as John Nieslen-Gammon outlined [...]

Musings of the Hemispheres

Tim Joslin — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 12:58:24 +0000

I should really try to finish one blog post before I start another on a similar topic. My last (published) post noted that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an atmospheric phenomenon, is not a climate driver, rather it’s a measure of the state of the climate – incidentally, I’m pleased to discover this morning [...]

New EU Network of Excellence

Kate Percival — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:53:04 +0000

Researchers in the Tyndall Centre are playing an important role in leading a new €7 million EU-wide Network of Excellence, which aims to provide a focus for international research on the use of evidence, science and assessment tools in policy-making.

Professor Andrew Jordan and Dr John Turnpenny are leading a critical area of work on understanding the needs of those producing and using policy analysis tools such as cost benefit analysis and computer models.

2009 temperatures by Jim Hansen

group — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 16:02:30 +0000

Jim Hansen, 2009 temperature summary, GISTEMP, HadCRUT, Arctic Oscillation, El Niño, global warming, and the difference between weather and climate

COP15: What happened and what next?

Asher Minns — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 13:41:15 +0000

A panel discussion with Professor Diana Liverman, Professor Yadvinder Malhi, journalist Mark Lynas, and BBC correspondent James Painter. Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Friday 15 Jan 2010 at 4pm.

New job opportunity: Research Development Officer at the University of Manchester

Asher Minns — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 13:29:46 +0000

Applications are invited for the above post at The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Manchester.

Plass and the Surface Budget Fallacy

raypierre — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 10:26:41 +0000

RealClimate is run by a rather loosely organized volunteer consortium of people with day jobs that in and of themselves can be quite consuming of attention. And so it came to pass that the first I learned about Gavin’s interest in the work of Plass was — by reading RealClimate! In fact, [...]

Snow Madness and the North-West European Anti-Monsoon

Tim Joslin — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 13:09:19 +0000

In India, apparently, legions of weather-forecasters, from eccentrics to supercomputer-operating state-funded agencies, are devoted to attempting to forecast the characteristics of the annual monsoon. A collective snow madness grips the UK during cold winters. Legions of weather-forecasters, from eccentrics to supercomputer-operating state-funded agencies attempt to explain events, nowadays with particular reference to global warming. Now that [...]

L&C, GRL, comments on peer review and peer-reviewed comments

gavin — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 19:03:53 +0000

Lindzen and Choi (2009), GRL, peer review

CommonFuture: Stay tuned for Journal Weekend end Feb 2010 on ‘Green IT’. This issue 2 b launched at CeBIT http://www.cebit.de/homepage_e early March #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 15:48:11 +0000

CommonFuture: Stay tuned for Journal Weekend end Feb 2010 on 'Green IT'. This issue 2 b launched at CeBIT http://www.cebit.de/homepage_e early March #fb

Designing a Book in Open Office

TheClimatePhilosopher — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 12:08:00 +0000

I've been searching for some tools to help me write a book. The word processing tool I intend to use is Open Office, which I find much more elegant and clean when it comes to the use of styles.

Using Open Office, I've been searching the web for tools to improve the design and give hints on writing a book in OO. Here is my list of links:

Overall this is the best link: http://www.linux.com/archive/articles/51448

A basic tutorial on Open Office is Available here: http://www.kaaredyret.dk/openoffice.html

Further resources on taming OO are here: http://www.taming-openoffice-org.com/newsite/?page_id=27

A general guide to writing a book is available here: http://www.taming-openoffice-org.com/newsite/?page_id=18

Experience is http://user.services.openoffice.org/en/forum/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=8545

There are two ways to write a book: as a single file or as a master document. For information about the single file method see here: http://www.freesoftwaremagazine.com/articles/create_book_template_with_writer

or here: http://maketecheasier.com/layout-a-book-with-openoffice-org-part-1/2009/07/13

Interestingly, the other Open Office apps have styles too: http://www.linuxjournal.com/content/graphic-styles-openofficeorg-draw-and-impress

Information on graphic design and pagelayout is on Wikipedia here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphic_design and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Page_layout

I also use Zotero for references, which I'm finding very helpful. Go here http://wiki.services.openoffice.org/wiki/Bibliographic/Style

Templates

You can get a full book template here: http://www.lulu.com/content/multimedia/6x9-book-template-for-openofficeorg-writer/232670

The open office templates are here: http://templates.services.openoffice.org/en/search/node/book

I've downloaded all the templates but I'm not that impressed by the graphical design.

The 'Advanced book template' has space for notes.

One template with active development is here: http://templates.services.openoffice.org/en/node/1577

This is intended for novelists, but has a lot of detailed help, including styles to create notes that won't be part of the final book. There is even a google group

http://groups.google.com/group/open-office-writers

First published response to Lindzen and Choi

gavin — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 20:02:24 +0000

Lindzen and Choi, Trenberth, Fasullo, O'Dell and Wong, climate sensitivity and how the scientific literature deals with anomalies.

Lindzen and Choi Unraveled

group — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 20:00:37 +0000

Lindzen and Choi, Trenberth Fasullo, O'Dell and Wang, tropical ocean temperatures, TOA radiative fluxes, climate sensitivity

The carbon dioxide theory of Gilbert Plass

gavin — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:18:54 +0000

Gilbert Plass, Lewis Kaplan, the history of the "carbon dioxide theory", climate sensitivity and how well it stands up 50 years later.

Unforced variations 2

gavin — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 16:35:42 +0000

Open thread on climate science issues. Knorr 2009 CO2 airborne fraction changes, John Coleman, KUSI, NCDC and NASA 'manipulation' of temperature data

Updates to model-data comparisons

gavin — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 22:17:42 +0000

It’s worth going back every so often to see how projections made back in the day are shaping up. As we get to the end of another year, we can update all of the graphs of annual means with another single datapoint. Statistically this isn’t hugely important, but people seem interested, so why not? For example, [...]

CommonFuture: Join the discussion at http://common-future.org/wiki/Join_the_discussion for our action plan in 2010. #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 07:32:32 +0000

CommonFuture: Join the discussion at http://common-future.org/wiki/Join_the_discussion for our action plan in 2010. #fb

Unforced variations

group — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 16:50:00 +0000

Open thread for various climate science-related discussions. Suggestions for potential future posts are welcome.

More independent views: Myles Allen and Ben Santer

eric — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:36:26 +0000

Three more commentaries by experts not associated with RealClimate. Ben Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Ben Santer again Myles Allen, University of Oxford It’s worth noting that Allen has published commentary that is critical of RealClimate. Comments on this should be posted under the Hansen post.

Kim Cobb’s view

eric — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:02:53 +0000

Guest Commentary: An Open Essay on “ClimateGate” Kim Cobb, Georgia Tech Since the widespread distribution of stolen e-mails originating from the University of East Anglia, I have become increasingly distressed by the way that the internet and media machinery has digested their content. As a climate scientist, I have always been sensitive to the direction the wind [...]

Jim Hansen’s opinion

eric — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:54:39 +0000

Several people have written saying that it would be useful to have an expert opinion on the state of the surface temperature data from someone other than RealClimate members. Here you go: TemperatureOfScience.pdf You don’t get more expert than Jim Hansen.

Please, show us your code

rasmus — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:38:45 +0000

The 1991 Science paper by Friis-Christensen & Lassen, work by Henrik Svensmark (Physical Review Letters), and calculations done by Scafetta & West (in the journals Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Geophysical Research, and Physics Today) have inspired the idea that the recent warming is due to changes in the sun, rather than greenhouse gases. We have [...]

Global Climate Policy: An Agenda For Effective Action

TheClimatePhilosopher — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:15:00 +0000

Full Paper

"Rules must be binding; Violations must be punished; Words must mean something."

(US President Barack Obama)

The negotiations currently taking place at Copenhagen at the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP-15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aim at the fundamental objective of the UNFCCC, namely to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at non-dangerous levels. It is argued that the existing institutional tools at our disposal – international treaties and in particular the Kyoto protocol – are insufficient to achieve this goal. Furthermore, the framework put in place at Kyoto suffers multiple and fundamental flaws which fatally undermine its effectiveness; any new treaty must have a structure which mostly evades these flaws if it is to be effective. Treaties, legal structures, and other institutions more commensurate with the scale of the climate change challenge are suggested to inform discussions around the structure of any future climate agreement. An agenda for effective global action is outlined here:

Strong global institutions – e.g. a world environmental agency – including an agreed framework (such as coordinated carbon taxes) for collective policy, to replace national commitments.
A framework action plan to eliminate carbon emissions sector-by-sector, region-by-region, over the next two to three decades. In particular a plan to develop, transfer and deploy the safe, responsible, and very large-scale use of enhanced energy efficiency, renewable-electric, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage energy technologies; and to encourage responsible land use and agriculture, including the sustainable use of water¹.
A significant ($100-$200/tCO₂e), sectorally complete, substantially geographically complete, agreed, and guaranteed minimum carbon price, levied upstream at the national level (including embodied carbon from any regions not otherwise carbon-constrained), with revenues used at national discretion. It is possible that a carbon tax may have net economic benefits at the national level if used to replace taxes with higher 'deadweight' costs. The removal of fossil fuel subsidies has already been agreed as part of the Kyoto protocol, but has not been fully implemented.
A plan to protect forests and other natural carbon stores.
A plan to keep high carbon fuels in the ground (following Hansen et al. 2008).
An enabling framework for enforceable state-corporation climate contracts (e.g. guaranteeing the carbon price for investors) (Ismer & Neuhoff 2006).
An enabling framework for the use of trade sanctions to enforce state-state climate commitments, such as border tax adjustments (Ismer & Neuhoff 2007).
Unimpeachable monitoring and verification of all commitments.

Full Paper

Why The ‘Kyoto’ Approach Fails

TheClimatePhilosopher — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:08:00 +0000

Full Paper

The structures for climate change mitigation agreed at Kyoto were flawed in a number of different ways. The most obvious flaw was the lack of effectiveness – it is not clear that the Kyoto treaty has reduced emissions at all. There are three main reasons for this lack of effectiveness:

Firstly, the treaty does not give binding commitments for all major emitters – in particular, the developing countries has no binding commitments and the United States signed but did not ratify the treaty.

Secondly, among the countries that implemented the agreement, many did not achieve the Kyoto targets. Little real action was noticeable – those who have achieved the targets (such as the UK and the former Soviet states) seemed to do so largely by accident rather than design.

Thirdly, the targets, although binding in international law, included no enforcement mechanism, beyond a threat that future targets would be more stringent for those countries that failed to achieve the target. There are also the following problems with international treaties in general:

Countries can in principle withdraw from treaties once signed, although this is rare.
Treaties face significant barriers in the US congress, with two thirds of United States senators required for ratification.

The Kyoto approach requires national emissions targets, negotiated country-by-country. It is possible that emissions reductions, whilst key to the end goal, are a politically and psychologically negative way of 'framing' commitments. (In other words, if commitments are expressed in different, but likely equivalent, terms, the balance of perceived national benefits may be different, for a given level of expected stringency). Countries may not know if they are able to reduce emissions by a large amount. Fast developing countries such as China or India may wish to play safe, avoiding emissions targets, whereas a more practical action plan (see below) may be perceived more positively by nations.

The Kyoto treaty and the actions since the treaty encourage downstream emissions trading. There are a few fundamental flaws to this approach:

Low coverage of sectors (the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) covers only 40% of the EU domestic emissions, and none of the net emissions embodied in its net imports);
An emissions trading scheme gives a volatile price for structural reasons related to the short-run price insensitivity (inelasticity) of fuel demand and the fact that carbon based fuels are ubiquitous in a modern economy (and so fuel demand is sensitive to the economic cycle and the weather). This volatility can lead to delayed investment and higher economic costs;
Emissions trading schemes encourage 'quota seeking' behaviour by nations in any original agreement and by companies in the political process of allocation rights to emit;
Perverse incentive to avoid stringent commitments – the structure of the agreement with national emissions caps fails to transform incentives of nation states;
The use of 'offsets', such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has multiple problems in addition to the lack of a developing country cap. Most fundamentally, it encourages 'double counting'. Offsets provide perverse incentives to developing countries to inflate expected emissions in order to demand payment to reduce them back to more reasonable levels.
No incentives to preserve existing forests and other natural carbon stores.

More fundamentally, none of the major powers (with the possible exception of the EU) have agreed to cede any sovereignty to a global institution. There also seems to be a fundamental difference in opinion between developed countries – which expect developing countries to accept binding commitments – and developing countries, who seek financial assistance from the developed world.

Finally, there is a lack of any necessary or direct connection between a treaty being agreed, and any real action to reduce emissions. We need a new treaty that has an 'action plan' to reduce emissions.

Make a deal or go home?
Given the multiple flaws in a possible Copenhagen agreement, there are two possible approaches. Firstly, the countries could avoid making a deal; Secondly, the countries could make a flawed deal that is ineffective. Both outcomes have major drawbacks. We might not get a better opportunity to reduce emissions, yet a flawed treaty would be little better than none at all. I think the best that could be expected would be a global agreed target and then leave implementation of those targets to a further treaty

Are the CRU data “suspect”? An objective assessment.

eric — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:26:49 +0000

Kevin Wood, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington Eric Steig, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington In the wake of the CRU e-mail hack, the suggestion that scientists have been hiding the raw meteorological data that underpin global temperature records has appeared in the media. For example, [...]

CommonFuture: JOIN the launch online at 2pm GMT at: https://webmeeting.dimdim.com/portal/JoinForm.action?confKey=common_future_video_talk #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:30:37 +0000

CommonFuture: JOIN the launch online at 2pm GMT at: https://webmeeting.dimdim.com/portal/JoinForm.action?confKey=common_future_video_talk #fb

CommonFuture: TODAY: LIVEstream from Bella Center, Copenhagen, at the Launch of the South-North Journal - 2pm GMT #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:29:39 +0000

CommonFuture: TODAY: LIVEstream from Bella Center, Copenhagen, at the Launch of the South-North Journal - 2pm GMT #fb

CommonFuture: Global Climate Policy: An Agenda For Effective Action http://bit.ly/8KiKCm #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 06:37:27 +0000

CommonFuture: Global Climate Policy: An Agenda For Effective Action http://bit.ly/8KiKCm #fb

CommonFuture: Global Climate Policy: An Agenda For Effective Action http://bit.ly/56Ud2K #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 06:37:24 +0000

CommonFuture: Global Climate Policy: An Agenda For Effective Action http://bit.ly/56Ud2K #fb

AGU Fall 2009

gavin — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:50:18 +0000

16,000 attendees, thousands of cups of coffee and thousands of interesting conversations (and debates) about science. That would be San Francisco, not Copenhagen of course. There are a few of the RC crew there, so hopefully we’ll get some updates, but keep track of some other attending bloggers as well: Michael Tobis Steve Easterbrook Update: [...]

CommonFuture: Journal will be launched on Tue 3pm (Copenhagen time) at our booth in the tcktcktck Arcade area within Bella Center. #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:24:02 +0000

CommonFuture: Journal will be launched on Tue 3pm (Copenhagen time) at our booth in the tcktcktck Arcade area within Bella Center. #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:24:02 +0000

CommonFuture: Journal will be launched on Tue 3pm (Copenhagen time) at our booth in the tcktcktck Arcade area within Bella Center. #fb

CommonFuture: Journal will be launched on Tue 3pm (Copenhagen time) at our booth in the tcktcktck Arcade area within Bella Center.

Twitter / CommonFuture — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:23:38 +0000

CommonFuture: Journal will be launched on Tue 3pm (Copenhagen time) at our booth in the tcktcktck Arcade area within Bella Center.

CommonFuture: South-North Journal arrived safely in Copenhagen. First issues delivered to our senior advisors. #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:20:51 +0000

CommonFuture: South-North Journal arrived safely in Copenhagen. First issues delivered to our senior advisors. #fb

Global Climate Policy: An Agenda For Effective Action

Stephen Stretton — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:55:08 +0000

Climate Policy A New Agenda (pdf), by Stephen Stretton Summary “Rules must be binding; Violations must be punished; Words must mean something.” (US President Barack Obama) The negotiations currently taking place at Copenhagen at the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP-15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aim at the fundamental objective of [...]

Oceans of change for fisheries

Administrator — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 12:00:12 +0000

Kate Brown, Neil Adger and Tim Daw contributed to the the FAO's Technical Paper on Fisheries and Aquaculture.

Oceans of change for fisheries

Administrator — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 12:00:12 +0000

Kate Brown, Neil Adger and Tim Daw contributed to the the FAO's Technical Paper on Fisheries and Aquaculture.

Neil Adger on: “Four Reasons for Concern About Adaptation to Climate Change”

Administrator — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:38:16 +0000

Professor Neil Adger of UEA discusses on Tyndall TV why adaptation to climate change may be more costly and harder to achieve than researchers and policymakers perceive

Neil Adger on: “Four Reasons for Concern About Adaptation to Climate Change”

Administrator — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:38:16 +0000

Professor Neil Adger of UEA discusses on Tyndall TV why adaptation to climate change may be more costly and harder to achieve than researchers and policymakers perceive

Kevin Anderson on: “Getting To Four Degrees” BBC Radio Four’s Afternoon Play

Administrator — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:18:39 +0000

What if we can't limit global warming to two degrees? What if it reaches four degrees - or more? Three real-life climate change experts spin one average family into the future, to look at life on a warmer planet. With Professor Kevin Anderson, Emma Tompkins (formerly of the Tyndall Centre) and Mark Lynas contributing to this innovative Radio 4 play on climate change

BBC Radio Four Afternoon Play: "Getting to Four Degrees"

CommonFuture: You can now view the Common Future South - North Journal online! Visit http://journal.common-future.org/ #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:49:56 +0000

CommonFuture: You can now view the Common Future South - North Journal online! Visit http://journal.common-future.org/ #fb

Nature Commentary by Tyndall and Oxford: “Mind the Gap”

Kate Percival — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:16:30 +0000

Tyndall academics Mark New, Diana Liverman and Kevin Anderson provide a Nature Commentary. “Mind the Gap” provides a clear account of why “Policymakers must aim to avoid a 2 °C temperature rise, but plan to adapt to 4 °C”. Nature Commentary

Nature Commentary by Tyndall and Oxford: “Mind the Gap”

Kate Percival — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:16:30 +0000

Kevin Anderson writes on Copenhagen

Asher Minns — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 13:08:26 +0000

Kevin writes in the UK newspaper The Independent...Copenhagen is unprecedented; it is not an updated Kyoto and even Bretton Woods is little more than a footnote when compared to the magnitude and urgency of the challenge we now collectively face. The Independent

Tyndall at COP15

Asher Minns — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:46:33 +0000

To engage the tens-of-thousands of climate change specialists at Copenhagen with our research we have several Tyndall-related events and an exhibition stand. To engage with audiences away from Copenhagen, several articles are being published online and in print media

Tyndall at COP15

Asher Minns — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:46:33 +0000

CommonFuture: And the journal is finally printed! Keep posted for info on its debut at Copenhagen. Thanks to everyone who contributed and helped! #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 10:55:48 +0000

CommonFuture: And the journal is finally printed! Keep posted for info on its debut at Copenhagen. Thanks to everyone who contributed and helped! #fb

The Guardian’s Editorial

eric — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:56:27 +0000

The following editorial was published today by 56 newspapers around the world in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by a Guardian team during more than a month of consultations with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. Like The Guardian most of the newspapers have taken the [...]

Playing the Energy Game

Tim Joslin — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:13:20 +0000

I mentioned last week that I was planning to play the Energy Game based on David MacKay’s book Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air (SEWTHA) at the Science Museum’s Dana Centre. Well, I’ve been true to my word, although I arrived there slightly breathless after taking the Victorian tunnels from South Kensington tube station. [...]

Workshop highlights the negative emissions potential of Biomass Carbon Capture and Storage

Paul Upham — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:39:31 +0000

On Friday December 4th, Tyndall Centre Manchester and the Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage at the University of Edinburgh held a workshop on Bio CCS (sometimes known as BECCS - Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage).

Hansen vs. Krugman: Second (Third and Fourth Order Effect)s Out!

Tim Joslin — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:29:24 +0000

Yesterday’s NYT includes a right royal spat. Well, online it does, at least. In a piece titled Cap and Fade, James Hansen argues that carbon taxes would be more effective than cap and trade. Paul Krugman responds under the heading Unhelpful Hansen, by first telling Hansen to stay off his turf. [...]

CommonFuture: Journal getting printed! Will reach @cop15 next week in time for the ministers… #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:48:45 +0000

CommonFuture: Journal getting printed! Will reach @cop15 next week in time for the ministers... #fb

CommonFuture: Almost finally done with the journal! Editors’ timecheck: almost 330am in the Phils., 1130pm in India, 830pm in Nigeria! Good mornight! #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:24:26 +0000

CommonFuture: Almost finally done with the journal! Editors' timecheck: almost 330am in the Phils., 1130pm in India, 830pm in Nigeria! Good mornight! #fb

Who you gonna call?

eric — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:41:28 +0000

The problem of ‘false balance’ in reporting — the distortions that can result from trying give equal time to the two perceived sides of an issue — is well known. In an excellent editorial a few years ago, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer called for a greater emphasis on truth, rather than ‘balance’. Unfortunately, this [...]

CommonFuture: Editing articles submitted for South-North Journal releasing @cop15 . Unique collaborative ideas emerge. Exciting future ahead! #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:48:26 +0000

CommonFuture: Editing articles submitted for South-North Journal releasing @cop15 . Unique collaborative ideas emerge. Exciting future ahead! #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:48:26 +0000

CommonFuture: Editing articles submitted for South-North Journal releasing @cop15 . Unique collaborative ideas emerge. Exciting future ahead! #fb

Why Expedient Offers of Energy Efficiency Improvements must be Rejected at Copenhagen

Tim Joslin — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:01:37 +0000

Earlier this year New Scientist foolishly tried to grab readers’ attention with a cover proclaiming that “Darwin was wrong”. He wasn’t, of course, and a right old furore was the inevitable result. It seems misleading headlines are an inevitable symptom of the editing process employed by magazines and newspapers. The journalist – perhaps keen to [...]

Why Expedient Offers of Energy Efficiency Improvements must be Rejected at Copenhagen

Tim Joslin — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:01:37 +0000

Why Expedient Offers of Energy Efficiency Improvements must be Rejected at Copenhagen

Tim Joslin — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:01:37 +0000

CommonFuture: Copenhagen Journal articles are coming in! Looking forward to receiving your contributions! Will now start reading submitted articles! #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:17:49 +0000

CommonFuture: Copenhagen Journal articles are coming in! Looking forward to receiving your contributions! Will now start reading submitted articles! #fb

Twitter / CommonFuture — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:17:49 +0000

CommonFuture: Copenhagen Journal articles are coming in! Looking forward to receiving your contributions! Will now start reading submitted articles! #fb